02 · Decompose

The headline number is five numbers.

is a fixed weighted blend of , , , , and . Reweight them on the right; watch your custom blend redraw against the actual series — and see whether your weights would have caught the last twelve recessions.

Series: NAPM Subindices
Frequency: Monthly
Source: Wayback / ISM ROB
Coverage: 2014 → 2026

Manufacturing5 subindices · 1948→Services4 subindices · 1997→

Coverage Wayback-extracted from ISM ROB. 2014-09 → 2015-03 and 2020-06 → present; gap 2015-04 → 2020-05 (COVID covered; 2008–09 isn't). Data ledger →

Subindex weights

The headline ISM PMI is an equal-weighted blend of these five. Change the mix to explore.

New Orders20%

Production20%

Employment20%

Supplier Deliveries20%

Inventories20%

Total100%

Recession-prediction backtest

How often did your blend dip below 50 in the 6 months before an NBER recession?

—

No recession in this dataset window has data points in its 6-month pre-window. (1 recession in the date range, but Wayback's 2015-04 → 2020-05 gap straddles the only one in reach: COVID, Feb 2020.)

The blend is a leading indicator, not a causal model. Below-50 readings can occur outside recession windows (false positives this dataset: 35). Use this as a teaching aid, not a forecasting tool.

Custom blend vs. actual ISM PMI

82 months · 2014-09-01 → 2026-08-01

Where this index came from