03 · You are the Fed Chair
Decide with the data they had then.
Five inflection points, five charts that hide everything past the day of decision. Read the briefing, pick your action, then see what actually happened — and how three schools of thought read it.
- Series
- ISM Mfg PMI
- Frequency
- Monthly
- Source
- ISM ROB
- Coverage
- 1979 → 2026
The Federal Reserve was created in 1913 and has had seventeen chairs since. The five scenarios below cover the modern era — Volcker, Greenspan, Bernanke, and Powell (twice). Walk the illustrated timeline →
Scenario 1 · Volcker, August 1979
Inflation is in double digits. What now?
Decision date: 1979-08-01
Scenario 2 · Greenspan, Fall 1998
LTCM nearly failed. The economy didn't.
Decision date: 1998-09-01
Scenario 3 · Bernanke, September 2008
Lehman has filed. AIG is next.
Decision date: 2008-09-01
Scenario 4 · Powell, December 2018
Tariffs are landing. Markets are sliding.
Decision date: 2018-12-01
Scenario 5 · Powell, June 2022
Inflation is at 8.6%. How fast?
Decision date: 2022-06-01