02 · Decompose

The headline number is four numbers.

The Services is an equal-weighted blend of four subindices — , , , and (Manufacturing has five; Services has no Inventories or Production component in its headline). Reweight them on the right; watch your custom blend redraw against the actual series.

Series: Services Subindices
Frequency: Monthly
Source: Wayback / ISM ROB
Coverage: 2014 → 2026

Manufacturing5 subindices · 1948→Services4 subindices · 1997→

Coverage Wayback-extracted from ISM Services ROB. 2014-09 → 2015-03 and 2020-07 → present; gap 2015-04 → 2020-06. Series began 1997. Data ledger →

Subindex weights

The headline ISM Services PMI is an equal-weighted blend of these four. Change the mix to explore.

Business Activity25%

New Orders25%

Employment25%

Supplier Deliveries25%

Total100%

Recession-prediction backtest

How often did your blend dip below 50 in the 6 months before an NBER recession?

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No recession in this dataset window has data points in its 6-month pre-window. (1 recession in the date range, but Wayback's 2015-04 → 2020-05 gap straddles the only one in reach: COVID, Feb 2020.)

The blend is a leading indicator, not a causal model. Below-50 readings can occur outside recession windows (false positives this dataset: 4). Use this as a teaching aid, not a forecasting tool.

Custom blend vs. actual ISM Services PMI

81 months · 2014-09-01 → 2026-08-01