It is December 2018. The Fed has hiked three times this year — March, June, and September. The dot plot still implies further hikes in 2019.

But Section 301 tariffs on Chinese imports are biting; the ISM PMI has cooled from its summer peak and factory surveys abroad are softening; the S&P 500 is down 13% from its September record. The yield curve is flattening fast.

Today is the December FOMC. The market is pricing a 70% chance of a hike but the political pressure against one is louder than at any time in your tenure.